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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Hard

Question

Let X be a random variable with distribution. x -2 -1 3 4 6 P(X = x) 15{1 \over 5} a 13{1 \over 3} 15{1 \over 5} b If the mean of X is 2.3 and variance of X is σ\sigma 2 , then 100 σ\sigma 2 is equal to :

Answer: 2

Solution

This problem requires us to determine the variance of a discrete random variable, given its probability distribution and mean. We will systematically apply the fundamental definitions and formulas for probability distributions, expected value (mean), and variance.

  1. Key Concepts and Formulas

    For a discrete random variable XX with possible values x1,x2,,xnx_1, x_2, \ldots, x_n and corresponding probabilities P(X=x1),P(X=x2),,P(X=xn)P(X=x_1), P(X=x_2), \ldots, P(X=x_n):

    • Sum of Probabilities: The sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes must be equal to 1. i=1nP(X=xi)=1\sum_{i=1}^{n} P(X=x_i) = 1
    • Mean (Expected Value): The mean, denoted as E(X)E(X) or μ\mu, is the weighted average of all possible values of XX, where the weights are their respective probabilities. E(X)=i=1nxiP(X=xi)E(X) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i \cdot P(X=x_i)
    • Variance: The variance, denoted as σ2\sigma^2 or Var(X)Var(X), measures the spread or dispersion of the distribution around its mean. It is calculated using the formula: Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2Var(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 where E(X2)=i=1nxi2P(X=xi)E(X^2) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i^2 \cdot P(X=x_i).
  2. Step-by-Step Solution

    The distribution of the random variable XX is given by:

    xx-2-1346
    P(X=x)P(X=x)1/51/5aa1/31/31/51/5bb

    The mean of XX, E(X)=2.3E(X) = 2.3.

    Step 1: Formulating the First Equation using the Sum of Probabilities

    Explanation: A fundamental property of any probability distribution is that the sum of all probabilities for all possible outcomes must equal 1. We use this to establish a relationship between the unknown probabilities aa and bb.

    P(X=2)+P(X=1)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=6)=1P(X=-2) + P(X=-1) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=6) = 1 Substituting the given probabilities: 15+a+13+15+b=1\frac{1}{5} + a + \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{5} + b = 1 Combine the known fractional probabilities: (15+15)+13+a+b=1\left(\frac{1}{5} + \frac{1}{5}\right) + \frac{1}{3} + a + b = 1 25+13+a+b=1\frac{2}{5} + \frac{1}{3} + a + b = 1 To sum the fractions, find a common denominator (15): 2×35×3+1×53×5+a+b=1\frac{2 \times 3}{5 \times 3} + \frac{1 \times 5}{3 \times 5} + a + b = 1 615+515+a+b=1\frac{6}{15} + \frac{5}{15} + a + b = 1 1115+a+b=1\frac{11}{15} + a + b = 1 Isolate a+ba + b: a+b=11115a + b = 1 - \frac{11}{15} a+b=151115a + b = \frac{15 - 11}{15} a+b=415(Equation 1)\mathbf{a + b = \frac{4}{15}} \quad \text{(Equation 1)}

    Step 2: Formulating the Second Equation using the Mean of X

    Explanation: The mean (or expected value) E(X)E(X) is calculated by multiplying each possible value of XX by its corresponding probability and then summing these products. We are given E(X)=2.3E(X) = 2.3, which allows us to form a second equation involving aa and bb.

    E(X)=xP(X=x)E(X) = \sum x \cdot P(X=x) Substituting the values from the table and the given mean: (2)(15)+(1)(a)+(3)(13)+(4)(15)+(6)(b)=2.3(-2)\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (-1)(a) + (3)\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + (4)\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (6)(b) = 2.3 Perform the multiplications: 25a+1+45+6b=2.3-\frac{2}{5} - a + 1 + \frac{4}{5} + 6b = 2.3 Combine the known numerical terms: (25+45)+1a+6b=2.3\left(-\frac{2}{5} + \frac{4}{5}\right) + 1 - a + 6b = 2.3 25+1a+6b=2.3\frac{2}{5} + 1 - a + 6b = 2.3 Convert fractions to decimals for easier calculation with 2.3: 0.4+1a+6b=2.30.4 + 1 - a + 6b = 2.3 1.4a+6b=2.31.4 - a + 6b = 2.3 Isolate the terms with aa and bb: a+6b=2.31.4-a + 6b = 2.3 - 1.4 a+6b=0.9(Equation 2)\mathbf{-a + 6b = 0.9} \quad \text{(Equation 2)}

    Step 3: Solving for Unknown Probabilities 'a' and 'b'

    Explanation: We now have a system of two linear equations with two unknowns (aa and bb). We will solve this system using the elimination method.

    Our system of equations is:

    1. a+b=415a + b = \frac{4}{15}
    2. a+6b=0.9=910-a + 6b = 0.9 = \frac{9}{10}

    Add Equation 1 and Equation 2: (a+b)+(a+6b)=415+910(a + b) + (-a + 6b) = \frac{4}{15} + \frac{9}{10} 7b=4×215×2+9×310×37b = \frac{4 \times 2}{15 \times 2} + \frac{9 \times 3}{10 \times 3} 7b=830+27307b = \frac{8}{30} + \frac{27}{30} 7b=35307b = \frac{35}{30} Simplify the fraction: 7b=767b = \frac{7}{6} Divide by 7 to find bb: b=16b = \frac{1}{6}

    Substitute the value of bb into Equation 1 to find aa: a+16=415a + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{4}{15} a=41516a = \frac{4}{15} - \frac{1}{6} Find a common denominator (30): a=4×215×21×56×5a = \frac{4 \times 2}{15 \times 2} - \frac{1 \times 5}{6 \times 5} a=830530a = \frac{8}{30} - \frac{5}{30} a=330a = \frac{3}{30} Simplify the fraction: a=110a = \frac{1}{10} So, the unknown probabilities are a=110\mathbf{a = \frac{1}{10}} and b=16\mathbf{b = \frac{1}{6}}.

    Step 4: Calculating the Expected Value of X-squared, E(X2)E(X^2)

    Explanation: To calculate the variance, we need E(X2)E(X^2). This is found by squaring each value of XX, multiplying it by its corresponding probability, and then summing these products. We use the values of aa and bb we just found.

    E(X2)=x2P(X=x)E(X^2) = \sum x^2 \cdot P(X=x) E(X2)=(2)2(15)+(1)2(a)+(3)2(13)+(4)2(15)+(6)2(b)E(X^2) = (-2)^2\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (-1)^2(a) + (3)^2\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + (4)^2\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (6)^2(b) Substitute the values of a=1/10a = 1/10 and b=1/6b = 1/6: E(X2)=(4)(15)+(1)(110)+(9)(13)+(16)(15)+(36)(16)E(X^2) = (4)\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (1)\left(\frac{1}{10}\right) + (9)\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + (16)\left(\frac{1}{5}\right) + (36)\left(\frac{1}{6}\right) Perform the multiplications: E(X2)=45+110+3+165+6E(X^2) = \frac{4}{5} + \frac{1}{10} + 3 + \frac{16}{5} + 6 Group terms with common denominators and combine integers: E(X2)=(45+165)+110+(3+6)E(X^2) = \left(\frac{4}{5} + \frac{16}{5}\right) + \frac{1}{10} + (3 + 6) E(X2)=205+110+9E(X^2) = \frac{20}{5} + \frac{1}{10} + 9 E(X2)=4+110+9E(X^2) = 4 + \frac{1}{10} + 9 E(X2)=13+110E(X^2) = 13 + \frac{1}{10} E(X2)=13.1E(X^2) = 13.1

    **Step 5: Calculating the Variance, σ2\sigma^2}

    Explanation: Now that we have E(X2)E(X^2) and the given E(X)E(X), we can calculate the variance using the formula Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2Var(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2.

    σ2=E(X2)[E(X)]2\sigma^2 = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 Substitute the calculated E(X2)=13.1E(X^2) = 13.1 and the given E(X)=2.3E(X) = 2.3: σ2=13.1(2.3)2\sigma^2 = 13.1 - (2.3)^2 Calculate (2.3)2(2.3)^2: (2.3)2=5.29(2.3)^2 = 5.29 Now subtract: σ2=13.15.29\sigma^2 = 13.1 - 5.29 σ2=7.81\sigma^2 = 7.81

    Step 6: Final Calculation: 100σ2100 \sigma^2

    Explanation: The question asks for the value of 100σ2100 \sigma^2. We simply multiply our calculated variance by 100.

    100σ2=100×7.81100 \sigma^2 = 100 \times 7.81 100σ2=781\mathbf{100 \sigma^2 = 781}

  3. Common Mistakes & Tips

    • Sum of Probabilities: Always verify that the sum of all probabilities equals 1. This is a crucial first step for problems involving unknown probabilities.
    • Fractional Arithmetic: Be meticulous when performing calculations with fractions and converting them to decimals. A small error early on can propagate through the entire problem.
    • Variance Formula: Do not confuse E(X2)E(X^2) with [E(X)]2[E(X)]^2. E(X2)E(X^2) is the expected value of the square of the random variable, while [E(X)]2[E(X)]^2 is the square of the expected value.
  4. Summary

    This problem required a systematic application of the definitions of discrete probability distributions, mean, and variance. We began by using the properties of probability (sum equals 1) and the given mean to solve for the unknown probabilities aa and bb. Once all probabilities were determined, we calculated E(X2)E(X^2), and then used it along with the given mean to find the variance σ2\sigma^2. Finally, we multiplied the variance by 100 to get the desired result.

The final answer is 781\boxed{781}.

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