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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Hard

Question

A fair n(n>1)n(n > 1) faces die is rolled repeatedly until a number less than nn appears. If the mean of the number of tosses required is n9\frac{n}{9}, then nn is equal to ____________.

Answer: 1

Solution

1. Key Concepts and Formulas

  • Geometric Distribution: This distribution models the number of independent Bernoulli trials required to achieve the first success. If XX is the random variable representing the number of trials, and pp is the probability of success in a single trial, then the probability mass function (PMF) is P(X=k)=qk1pP(X=k) = q^{k-1}p, where q=1pq = 1-p is the probability of failure, and k=1,2,3,k = 1, 2, 3, \ldots.
  • Mean of Geometric Distribution: The expected value (mean) of a Geometric Distribution is given by E[X]=1pE[X] = \frac{1}{p}. This formula is crucial for efficiency in solving such problems.
  • Sum of Infinite Geometric Progression (GP): For a GP with first term aa and common ratio rr where r<1|r|<1, the sum to infinity is S=a1rS_{\infty} = \frac{a}{1-r}. This will be used in deriving the mean from first principles.

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Identify the Geometric Distribution and Define Probabilities

  • What we are doing: We need to recognize that the problem describes a sequence of independent trials (rolling a die repeatedly) until a specific event (getting a number less than nn) occurs for the first time. This fits the definition of a Geometric Distribution. We will then define "success" and "failure" and calculate their probabilities, pp and qq.

  • Why we are doing it: Correctly identifying the distribution and its parameters (pp and qq) is the foundational step for solving any probability problem of this type.

  • Defining Success: The problem states the process stops when "a number less than nn appears."

    • Favorable outcomes (numbers less than nn): {1,2,,n1}\{1, 2, \ldots, n-1\}. There are (n1)(n-1) such outcomes.
    • Total possible outcomes when rolling an nn-faced die: {1,2,,n}\{1, 2, \ldots, n\}. There are nn such outcomes.
  • Calculating Probability of Success (pp): p=P(getting a number less than n)=Number of favorable outcomesTotal number of outcomes=n1np = P(\text{getting a number less than } n) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}} = \frac{n-1}{n}

  • Calculating Probability of Failure (qq): A failure means getting a number that is not less than nn. The only number on the die that satisfies this is nn. Alternatively, we use q=1pq=1-p: q=1p=1n1n=n(n1)n=1nq = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{n-1}{n} = \frac{n-(n-1)}{n} = \frac{1}{n} Since n>1n > 1 (given), pp is always positive and qq is always between 0 and 1, ensuring a valid probability distribution.

Step 2: State the Mean of the Geometric Distribution

  • What we are doing: We recall the standard formula for the mean (expected value) of a Geometric Distribution.
  • Why we are doing it: This formula provides a direct way to calculate the mean once pp is known, significantly simplifying the problem.

Let XX be the number of tosses required. XX follows a Geometric Distribution. The mean of XX is given by: E[X]=1pE[X] = \frac{1}{p}

Step 3: (Optional Derivation) Derive the Mean of the Geometric Distribution

  • What we are doing: Although we know the formula E[X]=1/pE[X] = 1/p, the original solution included its derivation using series summation. This demonstrates a deeper understanding of expected values and series.
  • Why we are doing it: This derivation is a valuable skill for JEE, as some problems might require summing such series from first principles or when the formula isn't immediately obvious.

The expected value E[X]E[X] is defined as E[X]=k=1kP(X=k)E[X] = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k \cdot P(X=k). Using P(X=k)=qk1pP(X=k) = q^{k-1}p: E[X]=k=1k(qk1p)E[X] = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k \cdot (q^{k-1}p) Factor out pp: E[X]=pk=1kqk1=p(1q0+2q1+3q2+)E[X] = p \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k q^{k-1} = p (1 \cdot q^0 + 2 \cdot q^1 + 3 \cdot q^2 + \ldots) Let S=1+2q+3q2+4q3+(A)S' = 1 + 2q + 3q^2 + 4q^3 + \ldots \quad \ldots(A) This is an Arithmetico-Geometric Progression (AGP). To sum it, we multiply by qq and subtract: qS=q+2q2+3q3+(B)qS' = \quad q + 2q^2 + 3q^3 + \ldots \quad \ldots(B) Subtract (B) from (A): SqS=1+(2qq)+(3q22q2)+(4q33q3)+S' - qS' = 1 + (2q-q) + (3q^2-2q^2) + (4q^3-3q^3) + \ldots S(1q)=1+q+q2+q3+S'(1-q) = 1 + q + q^2 + q^3 + \ldots The right-hand side is an infinite Geometric Progression with first term a=1a=1 and common ratio qq. Since q=1nq = \frac{1}{n} and n>1n>1, we have 0<q<10 < q < 1, so the sum converges to 11q\frac{1}{1-q}. S(1q)=11qS'(1-q) = \frac{1}{1-q} Solving for SS': S=1(1q)2S' = \frac{1}{(1-q)^2} Now substitute SS' back into the expression for E[X]E[X]: E[X]=pS=p1(1q)2E[X] = p \cdot S' = p \cdot \frac{1}{(1-q)^2} Since p=1qp = 1-q, we replace (1q)(1-q) with pp: E[X]=p1p2=1pE[X] = p \cdot \frac{1}{p^2} = \frac{1}{p} This confirms the formula for the mean of a Geometric Distribution.

Step 4: Express the Mean in terms of nn

  • What we are doing: We substitute the specific probability of success, p=n1np = \frac{n-1}{n}, into the mean formula E[X]=1pE[X] = \frac{1}{p}.
  • Why we are doing it: This allows us to have an expression for the mean that depends only on nn, which we can then use to solve for nn.

Using E[X]=1pE[X] = \frac{1}{p} and p=n1np = \frac{n-1}{n}: E[X]=1n1nE[X] = \frac{1}{\frac{n-1}{n}} E[X]=nn1E[X] = \frac{n}{n-1}

Step 5: Use the Given Mean to Solve for nn

  • What we are doing: The problem states that the mean number of tosses is n9\frac{n}{9}. We will equate our derived expression for E[X]E[X] with this given value and solve for nn.
  • Why we are doing it: This is the final algebraic step to find the value of nn as required by the question.

We have E[X]=nn1E[X] = \frac{n}{n-1} and the problem states E[X]=n9E[X] = \frac{n}{9}. Equating these two expressions: nn1=n9\frac{n}{n-1} = \frac{n}{9} Since n>1n > 1 (given in the problem), we know n0n \neq 0. Therefore, we can safely divide both sides by nn: 1n1=19\frac{1}{n-1} = \frac{1}{9} Taking the reciprocal of both sides: n1=9n-1 = 9 Solving for nn: n=9+1n = 9 + 1 n=10n = 10 This value n=10n=10 satisfies the condition n>1n>1.


3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Incorrectly Defining pp: The most frequent error is miscalculating the probability of "success." Always clearly define what constitutes a success and a failure based on the problem statement.
  • Forgetting the Mean Formula: While deriving the mean (E[X]=1/pE[X] = 1/p) is good practice, knowing it directly can save significant time in JEE, especially when time is critical.
  • Algebraic Errors: Be careful with fractions and algebraic manipulations, particularly when solving the final equation. Double-check your steps.

4. Summary

This problem effectively tests the understanding and application of the Geometric Distribution. We first identified the problem as a Geometric Distribution scenario and accurately determined the probability of success, p=n1np = \frac{n-1}{n}, and failure, q=1nq = \frac{1}{n}. We then utilized the formula for the mean of a Geometric Distribution, E[X]=1pE[X] = \frac{1}{p}, substituting the value of pp to express the mean in terms of nn as E[X]=nn1E[X] = \frac{n}{n-1}. Finally, by equating this derived mean with the given mean of n9\frac{n}{9}, we solved the resulting algebraic equation to find n=10n=10.


5. Final Answer

The final answer is 10\boxed{10}.

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