Question
A pair of dice is thrown 5 times. For each throw, a total of 5 is considered a success. If the probability of at least 4 successes is , then is equal to :
Options
Solution
This problem involves calculating the probability of a specific number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, which is a classic application of the Binomial Probability Distribution.
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Key Concepts and Formulas
- Binomial Probability Distribution: For independent Bernoulli trials, each with probability of success and probability of failure , the probability of getting exactly successes is given by: where is the binomial coefficient.
- Probability of a Single Event (Dice Roll): When rolling two fair dice, the total number of possible outcomes is . The probability of a specific sum is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total outcomes.
- "At least" Probability: The probability of "at least successes" means the sum of probabilities for successes.
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Step-by-Step Solution
Step 1: Determine the Probability of Success () and Failure () for a Single Trial
- Define a Single Trial: A single trial is one throw of a pair of dice.
- Total Possible Outcomes: When two dice are thrown, there are distinct possible outcomes.
- Reasoning: Each die has 6 faces, and the outcome of one die does not affect the other. We consider the dice distinguishable (e.g., a first die and a second die) to ensure all elementary outcomes are equally likely.
- Define Success: A success is defined as obtaining a total of 5 on the two dice.
- Favorable Outcomes for Success: Let's list the ordered pairs where is the outcome of the first die and is the outcome of the second die, such that :
- There are 4 such favorable outcomes.
- Calculate Probability of Success ():
- Calculate Probability of Failure ():
Step 2: Identify the Parameters for the Binomial Distribution
- Number of Trials (): The problem states that the pair of dice is thrown 5 times. So, .
- Probability of Success (): From Step 1, .
- Probability of Failure (): From Step 1, .
- Random Variable (): Let be the number of successes (times a total of 5 is obtained) in the 5 throws. Thus, .
Step 3: Calculate the Probability of "at least 4 successes"
- Interpret the Condition: "At least 4 successes" means or .
- Calculate : Using the binomial formula with :
- Calculate : Using the binomial formula with :
- Sum the Probabilities:
Step 4: Express the Probability in the Given Form and Find
- Convert the Denominator: We have . We need to express this in the form . First, rewrite in terms of powers of 3: So, the probability is:
- Match the Denominator: To get in the denominator, we multiply both the numerator and the denominator by 3:
- Find : Comparing this with the given form , we find:
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Common Mistakes & Tips
- Distinguishable Dice: Always assume dice are distinguishable unless explicitly stated otherwise, especially when calculating probabilities of sums. This correctly accounts for all elementary outcomes.
- Binomial Coefficient Calculation: Ensure correct calculation of . Remember .
- "At least" vs. "Exactly": Carefully interpret probability phrasing like "at least", "at most", "exactly". "At least 4" means 4 or more.
- Power Conversion: Be careful when converting between powers of different bases, e.g., , not .
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Summary The problem was solved by first determining the probability of success for a single throw of a pair of dice (getting a sum of 5). This probability () and the number of trials () were then used in the Binomial Probability Distribution formula to calculate the probability of "at least 4 successes" (). The calculated probability was , which was then converted to the form by expressing as and adjusting the numerator. This yielded .
The final answer is , which corresponds to option (C).