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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Hard

Question

A pair of dice is thrown 5 times. For each throw, a total of 5 is considered a success. If the probability of at least 4 successes is k311\frac{k}{3^{11}}, then kk is equal to :

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Solution

This problem involves calculating the probability of a specific number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, which is a classic application of the Binomial Probability Distribution.

  1. Key Concepts and Formulas

    • Binomial Probability Distribution: For nn independent Bernoulli trials, each with probability of success pp and probability of failure q=1pq=1-p, the probability of getting exactly xx successes is given by: P(X=x)=nCxpxqnxP(X=x) = {^n C_x p^x q^{n-x}} where nCx=n!x!(nx)!{^n C_x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!} is the binomial coefficient.
    • Probability of a Single Event (Dice Roll): When rolling two fair dice, the total number of possible outcomes is 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36. The probability of a specific sum is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total outcomes.
    • "At least" Probability: The probability of "at least mm successes" means the sum of probabilities for m,m+1,,nm, m+1, \dots, n successes.
  2. Step-by-Step Solution

    Step 1: Determine the Probability of Success (pp) and Failure (qq) for a Single Trial

    • Define a Single Trial: A single trial is one throw of a pair of dice.
    • Total Possible Outcomes: When two dice are thrown, there are 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 distinct possible outcomes.
      • Reasoning: Each die has 6 faces, and the outcome of one die does not affect the other. We consider the dice distinguishable (e.g., a first die and a second die) to ensure all elementary outcomes are equally likely.
    • Define Success: A success is defined as obtaining a total of 5 on the two dice.
    • Favorable Outcomes for Success: Let's list the ordered pairs (d1,d2)(d_1, d_2) where d1d_1 is the outcome of the first die and d2d_2 is the outcome of the second die, such that d1+d2=5d_1 + d_2 = 5:
      • (1,4)(1, 4)
      • (2,3)(2, 3)
      • (3,2)(3, 2)
      • (4,1)(4, 1) There are 4 such favorable outcomes.
    • Calculate Probability of Success (pp): p=P(sum is 5)=Number of favorable outcomesTotal number of outcomes=436=19p = P(\text{sum is 5}) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}} = \frac{4}{36} = \frac{1}{9}
    • Calculate Probability of Failure (qq): q=P(sum is not 5)=1p=119=89q = P(\text{sum is not 5}) = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{1}{9} = \frac{8}{9}

    Step 2: Identify the Parameters for the Binomial Distribution

    • Number of Trials (nn): The problem states that the pair of dice is thrown 5 times. So, n=5n=5.
    • Probability of Success (pp): From Step 1, p=19p = \frac{1}{9}.
    • Probability of Failure (qq): From Step 1, q=89q = \frac{8}{9}.
    • Random Variable (XX): Let XX be the number of successes (times a total of 5 is obtained) in the 5 throws. Thus, XB(n=5,p=19)X \sim B(n=5, p=\frac{1}{9}).

    Step 3: Calculate the Probability of "at least 4 successes"

    • Interpret the Condition: "At least 4 successes" means X=4X=4 or X=5X=5. P(X4)=P(X=4)+P(X=5)P(X \ge 4) = P(X=4) + P(X=5)
    • Calculate P(X=4)P(X=4): Using the binomial formula P(X=x)=nCxpxqnxP(X=x) = {^n C_x p^x q^{n-x}} with n=5,x=4,p=19,q=89n=5, x=4, p=\frac{1}{9}, q=\frac{8}{9}: P(X=4)=5C4(19)4(89)54P(X=4) = {^5 C_4 \left(\frac{1}{9}\right)^4 \left(\frac{8}{9}\right)^{5-4}} 5C4=5!4!1!=5{^5 C_4} = \frac{5!}{4!1!} = 5 P(X=4)=5×(19)4×(89)1=5×194×89=4095P(X=4) = 5 \times \left(\frac{1}{9}\right)^4 \times \left(\frac{8}{9}\right)^1 = 5 \times \frac{1}{9^4} \times \frac{8}{9} = \frac{40}{9^5}
    • Calculate P(X=5)P(X=5): Using the binomial formula with n=5,x=5,p=19,q=89n=5, x=5, p=\frac{1}{9}, q=\frac{8}{9}: P(X=5)=5C5(19)5(89)55P(X=5) = {^5 C_5 \left(\frac{1}{9}\right)^5 \left(\frac{8}{9}\right)^{5-5}} 5C5=5!5!0!=1{^5 C_5} = \frac{5!}{5!0!} = 1 P(X=5)=1×(19)5×(89)0=1×195×1=195P(X=5) = 1 \times \left(\frac{1}{9}\right)^5 \times \left(\frac{8}{9}\right)^0 = 1 \times \frac{1}{9^5} \times 1 = \frac{1}{9^5}
    • Sum the Probabilities: P(X4)=P(X=4)+P(X=5)=4095+195=4195P(X \ge 4) = P(X=4) + P(X=5) = \frac{40}{9^5} + \frac{1}{9^5} = \frac{41}{9^5}

    Step 4: Express the Probability in the Given Form and Find kk

    • Convert the Denominator: We have P(X4)=4195P(X \ge 4) = \frac{41}{9^5}. We need to express this in the form k311\frac{k}{3^{11}}. First, rewrite 959^5 in terms of powers of 3: 95=(32)5=3109^5 = (3^2)^5 = 3^{10} So, the probability is: P(X4)=41310P(X \ge 4) = \frac{41}{3^{10}}
    • Match the Denominator: To get 3113^{11} in the denominator, we multiply both the numerator and the denominator by 3: P(X4)=41×3310×3=123311P(X \ge 4) = \frac{41 \times 3}{3^{10} \times 3} = \frac{123}{3^{11}}
    • Find kk: Comparing this with the given form k311\frac{k}{3^{11}}, we find: k=123k = 123
  3. Common Mistakes & Tips

    • Distinguishable Dice: Always assume dice are distinguishable unless explicitly stated otherwise, especially when calculating probabilities of sums. This correctly accounts for all elementary outcomes.
    • Binomial Coefficient Calculation: Ensure correct calculation of nCx{^n C_x}. Remember 0!=10! = 1.
    • "At least" vs. "Exactly": Carefully interpret probability phrasing like "at least", "at most", "exactly". "At least 4" means 4 or more.
    • Power Conversion: Be careful when converting between powers of different bases, e.g., 95=(32)5=3109^5 = (3^2)^5 = 3^{10}, not 3113^{11}.
  4. Summary The problem was solved by first determining the probability of success for a single throw of a pair of dice (getting a sum of 5). This probability (p=1/9p=1/9) and the number of trials (n=5n=5) were then used in the Binomial Probability Distribution formula to calculate the probability of "at least 4 successes" (P(X=4)+P(X=5)P(X=4) + P(X=5)). The calculated probability was 4195\frac{41}{9^5}, which was then converted to the form k311\frac{k}{3^{11}} by expressing 959^5 as 3103^{10} and adjusting the numerator. This yielded k=123k=123.

The final answer is 123\boxed{123}, which corresponds to option (C).

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