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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Medium

Question

Let the probability of getting head for a biased coin be 14\frac{1}{4}. It is tossed repeatedly until a head appears. Let N\mathrm{N} be the number of tosses required. If the probability that the equation 64x2+5Nx+1=064 \mathrm{x}^{2}+5 \mathrm{Nx}+1=0 has no real root is pq\frac{\mathrm{p}}{\mathrm{q}}, where p\mathrm{p} and q\mathrm{q} are coprime, then qpq-p is equal to ________.

Answer: 64

Solution

Key Concepts and Formulas

To solve this problem, we will utilize two fundamental concepts from JEE Mathematics:

  • Nature of Roots of a Quadratic Equation: For a quadratic equation of the form ax2+bx+c=0ax^2 + bx + c = 0 (where a0a \neq 0), the nature of its roots is determined by the discriminant, D=b24acD = b^2 - 4ac.

    • If D>0D > 0, there are two distinct real roots.
    • If D=0D = 0, there is one real root (a repeated root).
    • If D<0D < 0, there are no real roots (the roots are complex conjugates). In this problem, we are interested in the condition D<0D < 0.
  • Geometric Probability Distribution: This distribution models the number of independent Bernoulli trials required to achieve the first success. If pp is the probability of success in a single trial and q=1pq = 1-p is the probability of failure, then the probability that the first success occurs on the nn-th trial is given by: P(N=n)=qn1p=(1p)n1p,for n=1,2,3,P(N=n) = q^{n-1}p = (1-p)^{n-1}p, \quad \text{for } n = 1, 2, 3, \ldots This means there are n1n-1 failures followed by one success.

Step-by-Step Solution

Let's systematically break down the problem and solve each part.

Step 1: Determine the condition on NN for the quadratic equation to have no real roots.

The given quadratic equation is 64x2+5Nx+1=064x^2 + 5Nx + 1 = 0. We identify the coefficients by comparing it with the standard form ax2+bx+c=0ax^2 + bx + c = 0: a=64a = 64 b=5Nb = 5N c=1c = 1

For the equation to have no real roots, its discriminant DD must be strictly less than zero (D<0D < 0). Using the discriminant formula D=b24acD = b^2 - 4ac: (5N)24(64)(1)<0(5N)^2 - 4(64)(1) < 0 25N2256<025N^2 - 256 < 0

Now, we solve this inequality for NN: 25N2<25625N^2 < 256 N2<25625N^2 < \frac{256}{25} Taking the square root of both sides. Since NN represents the number of tosses, it must be a positive integer (N1N \ge 1). Therefore, we consider the positive square root: N<25625N < \sqrt{\frac{256}{25}} N<165N < \frac{16}{5} N<3.2N < 3.2

Since NN must be a positive integer, the possible values for NN that satisfy this condition are: N{1,2,3}N \in \{1, 2, 3\} These are the only integer values for NN for which the quadratic equation will have no real roots.

Step 2: Calculate the probabilities for each possible value of NN.

The problem states that a biased coin is tossed repeatedly until a head appears, and NN is the number of tosses required. This is a classic geometric distribution scenario. The probability of getting a head (success) is given as p=14p = \frac{1}{4}. The probability of getting a tail (failure) is q=1p=114=34q = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}.

We use the geometric distribution formula P(N=n)=qn1pP(N=n) = q^{n-1}p for the values of NN identified in Step 1:

  • For N=1N=1: The first toss is a Head. P(N=1)=(34)11×14=(34)0×14=1×14=14P(N=1) = \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{1-1} \times \frac{1}{4} = \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^0 \times \frac{1}{4} = 1 \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{1}{4}

  • For N=2N=2: The first toss is a Tail, and the second toss is a Head (TH). P(N=2)=(34)21×14=34×14=316P(N=2) = \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{2-1} \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{16}

  • For N=3N=3: The first two tosses are Tails, and the third toss is a Head (TTH). P(N=3)=(34)31×14=(34)2×14=916×14=964P(N=3) = \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{3-1} \times \frac{1}{4} = \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^2 \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{9}{16} \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{9}{64}

Step 3: Calculate the total probability that the equation has no real roots.

The event "the equation has no real root" occurs if N=1N=1 OR N=2N=2 OR N=3N=3. Since these are mutually exclusive events (only one value of NN can occur), the total probability is the sum of their individual probabilities: P(no real root)=P(N=1)+P(N=2)+P(N=3)P(\text{no real root}) = P(N=1) + P(N=2) + P(N=3) Substituting the probabilities calculated in Step 2: P(no real root)=14+316+964P(\text{no real root}) = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{3}{16} + \frac{9}{64} To sum these fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 64: P(no real root)=1×164×16+3×416×4+964P(\text{no real root}) = \frac{1 \times 16}{4 \times 16} + \frac{3 \times 4}{16 \times 4} + \frac{9}{64} P(no real root)=1664+1264+964P(\text{no real root}) = \frac{16}{64} + \frac{12}{64} + \frac{9}{64} P(no real root)=16+12+964P(\text{no real root}) = \frac{16 + 12 + 9}{64} P(no real root)=3764P(\text{no real root}) = \frac{37}{64}

Step 4: Determine pp and qq and calculate qpq-p.

The problem states that the probability is pq\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are coprime. From our calculation, we have: pq=3764\frac{p}{q} = \frac{37}{64} By comparing the numerator and denominator, we get: p=37p = 37 q=64q = 64

We must verify that pp and qq are coprime. 37 is a prime number. The prime factorization of 64 is 262^6. Since 37 is not 2, 37 and 64 share no common prime factors, meaning they are coprime.

Finally, we calculate the value of qpq-p: qp=6437q-p = 64 - 37 qp=27q-p = 27

Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Inequality for Discriminant: Be meticulous with the inequality sign when applying the discriminant condition. "No real roots" explicitly means D<0D < 0, not D0D \le 0.
  • Nature of Random Variable N: Remember that NN represents a count (number of tosses), so it must be a positive integer (1,2,3,1, 2, 3, \ldots). When solving inequalities for NN, only select valid integer values.
  • Geometric Distribution Formula: Ensure the exponent for the probability of failure (qq) is correctly n1n-1, corresponding to n1n-1 failures before the first success on the nn-th trial.
  • Coprime Check: Always confirm that the numerator and denominator of your final probability fraction are coprime. If they are not, simplify the fraction before identifying pp and qq.

Summary

This problem elegantly combines concepts from quadratic equations and probability. We first used the discriminant condition (D<0D < 0) to find the possible integer values of NN for which the quadratic equation has no real roots. Then, recognizing NN as a geometrically distributed random variable, we calculated the probability for each of these NN values. Summing these probabilities gave us the total probability 3764\frac{37}{64}. Finally, by setting p=37p=37 and q=64q=64 and verifying their coprimality, we calculated qpq-p.

The final answer is 27\boxed{27}.

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