1. Key Concepts and Formulas
- Binomial Distribution B(n,p): A random variable X follows a binomial distribution if it represents the number of successes in n independent Bernoulli trials, where p is the probability of success in a single trial and q=1−p is the probability of failure.
- Mean (μ): μ=np
- Variance (σ2): σ2=npq
- Probability Mass Function (PMF): The probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by:
P(X=x)=nCxpxqn−x
where x∈{0,1,…,n}.
- Properties of Combinations: nCx=x!(n−x)!n!. An important property is nCx=nCn−x.
2. Step-by-Step Solution
Step 1: Formulate equations using the given information about mean and variance.
We are given that the sum of the mean and variance is 24, and their product is 128. Let μ be the mean and σ2 be the variance of X.
- Sum: μ+σ2=24
- Product: μ⋅σ2=128
Now, substitute the formulas for mean (μ=np) and variance (σ2=npq) into these equations:
- Equation (1): np+npq=24
- Equation (2): (np)(npq)=128
Step 2: Solve the system of equations to find the values of np and q.
To simplify, let M=np (which represents the mean). The equations become:
- M+Mq=24
- M⋅(Mq)=128
From the first equation, we can express Mq in terms of M:
Mq=24−M
Substitute this expression for Mq into the second equation:
M(24−M)=128
Rearrange this into a standard quadratic equation:
24M−M2=128
M2−24M+128=0
We can solve this quadratic equation by factoring. We look for two numbers that multiply to 128 and add up to -24. These numbers are -16 and -8.
(M−16)(M−8)=0
This gives two possible values for M (the mean np):
M=16orM=8
Step 3: Determine the valid parameters (n,p,q) for the binomial distribution.
We must check both possible values for M=np.
-
Case 1: If M=np=16
Substitute M=16 into Mq=24−M:
16q=24−16
16q=8
q=168=21
Since p+q=1, we find p:
p=1−q=1−21=21
Now, use np=16 to find n:
n(21)=16
n=32
Validity Check: n=32 is a positive integer, and p=1/2, q=1/2 are probabilities between 0 and 1. This set of parameters is valid.
-
Case 2: If M=np=8
Substitute M=8 into Mq=24−M:
8q=24−8
8q=16
q=816=2
Validity Check: The probability q must be between 0 and 1. Since q=2 is greater than 1, this case is invalid.
Therefore, the only valid parameters for the binomial distribution are n=32, p=1/2, and q=1/2.
Step 4: Calculate the probability P(X>n−3).
Using n=32, we need to calculate P(X>32−3), which simplifies to P(X>29).
Since X is a discrete random variable taking integer values from 0 to n, P(X>29) means P(X=30)+P(X=31)+P(X=32).
The Probability Mass Function (PMF) is P(X=x)=nCxpxqn−x.
With n=32, p=1/2, q=1/2, the term pxqn−x becomes (1/2)x(1/2)32−x=(1/2)32.
So, P(X=x)=32Cx(21)32.
Let's calculate each term:
-
For X=30:
P(X=30)=32C30(21)32
Using nCx=nCn−x, we have 32C30=32C32−30=32C2.
32C2=2×132×31=16×31=496
So, P(X=30)=496(21)32.
-
For X=31:
P(X=31)=32C31(21)32
Using nCx=nCn−x, we have 32C31=32C32−31=32C1.
32C1=32
So, P(X=31)=32(21)32.
-
For X=32:
P(X=32)=32C32(21)32
32C32=1
So, P(X=32)=1(21)32.
Now, sum these probabilities:
P(X>29)=496(21)32+32(21)32+1(21)32
Factor out the common term (21)32:
P(X>29)=(496+32+1)(21)32
P(X>29)=529(21)32
Step 5: Determine the value of k.
The problem states that P(X>n−3)=2nk.
Substituting n=32, we have P(X>29)=232k.
Comparing this with our calculated probability:
232k=529(21)32=232529
Therefore, k=529.
3. Common Mistakes & Tips
- Parameter Validity: Always verify that the derived parameters n,p,q are valid for a binomial distribution (n is a positive integer, 0≤p≤1, 0≤q≤1). This step is crucial for eliminating extraneous solutions from quadratic equations.
- Inequality Interpretation: For discrete random variables, P(X>a) means P(X=a+1)+P(X=a+2)+…. Ensure you correctly identify the range of values for summation.
- Combinations and PMF Simplification: When p=q=1/2, the term pxqn−x simplifies to (1/2)n, which can significantly streamline calculations. Also, use the property nCx=nCn−x to simplify calculations for large x.
4. Summary
This problem tests the fundamental understanding of binomial distribution properties. It involved setting up and solving a system of equations based on the given sum and product of mean and variance to determine the distribution parameters (n=32,p=1/2,q=1/2). A critical step was validating the parameters to discard invalid solutions. Finally, the probability P(X>n−3) was calculated by summing the probabilities of specific outcomes using the PMF, leading to the value of k.
The final answer is 529, which corresponds to option (B).