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JEE Main 2024
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Easy

Question

Let X have a binomial distribution B(n, p) such that the sum and the product of the mean and variance of X are 24 and 128 respectively. If P(X>n3)=k2nP(X>n-3)=\frac{k}{2^{n}}, then k is equal to :

Options

Solution

1. Key Concepts and Formulas

  • Binomial Distribution B(n,p)B(n, p): A random variable XX follows a binomial distribution if it represents the number of successes in nn independent Bernoulli trials, where pp is the probability of success in a single trial and q=1pq=1-p is the probability of failure.
    • Mean (μ\mu): μ=np\mu = np
    • Variance (σ2\sigma^2): σ2=npq\sigma^2 = npq
  • Probability Mass Function (PMF): The probability of exactly xx successes in nn trials is given by: P(X=x)=nCxpxqnxP(X=x) = {^nC_x} p^x q^{n-x} where x{0,1,,n}x \in \{0, 1, \dots, n\}.
  • Properties of Combinations: nCx=n!x!(nx)!{^nC_x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}. An important property is nCx=nCnx{^nC_x} = {^nC_{n-x}}.

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Formulate equations using the given information about mean and variance. We are given that the sum of the mean and variance is 24, and their product is 128. Let μ\mu be the mean and σ2\sigma^2 be the variance of XX.

  • Sum: μ+σ2=24\mu + \sigma^2 = 24
  • Product: μσ2=128\mu \cdot \sigma^2 = 128

Now, substitute the formulas for mean (μ=np\mu = np) and variance (σ2=npq\sigma^2 = npq) into these equations:

  • Equation (1): np+npq=24np + npq = 24
  • Equation (2): (np)(npq)=128(np)(npq) = 128

Step 2: Solve the system of equations to find the values of npnp and qq. To simplify, let M=npM = np (which represents the mean). The equations become:

  • M+Mq=24M + Mq = 24
  • M(Mq)=128M \cdot (Mq) = 128

From the first equation, we can express MqMq in terms of MM: Mq=24MMq = 24 - M Substitute this expression for MqMq into the second equation: M(24M)=128M(24 - M) = 128 Rearrange this into a standard quadratic equation: 24MM2=12824M - M^2 = 128 M224M+128=0M^2 - 24M + 128 = 0 We can solve this quadratic equation by factoring. We look for two numbers that multiply to 128 and add up to -24. These numbers are -16 and -8. (M16)(M8)=0(M - 16)(M - 8) = 0 This gives two possible values for MM (the mean npnp): M=16orM=8M = 16 \quad \text{or} \quad M = 8

Step 3: Determine the valid parameters (n,p,qn, p, q) for the binomial distribution. We must check both possible values for M=npM = np.

  • Case 1: If M=np=16M = np = 16 Substitute M=16M=16 into Mq=24MMq = 24 - M: 16q=241616q = 24 - 16 16q=816q = 8 q=816=12q = \frac{8}{16} = \frac{1}{2} Since p+q=1p + q = 1, we find pp: p=1q=112=12p = 1 - q = 1 - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2} Now, use np=16np = 16 to find nn: n(12)=16n \left(\frac{1}{2}\right) = 16 n=32n = 32 Validity Check: n=32n=32 is a positive integer, and p=1/2p=1/2, q=1/2q=1/2 are probabilities between 0 and 1. This set of parameters is valid.

  • Case 2: If M=np=8M = np = 8 Substitute M=8M=8 into Mq=24MMq = 24 - M: 8q=2488q = 24 - 8 8q=168q = 16 q=168=2q = \frac{16}{8} = 2 Validity Check: The probability qq must be between 0 and 1. Since q=2q=2 is greater than 1, this case is invalid.

Therefore, the only valid parameters for the binomial distribution are n=32n=32, p=1/2p=1/2, and q=1/2q=1/2.

Step 4: Calculate the probability P(X>n3)P(X > n-3). Using n=32n=32, we need to calculate P(X>323)P(X > 32-3), which simplifies to P(X>29)P(X > 29). Since XX is a discrete random variable taking integer values from 00 to nn, P(X>29)P(X > 29) means P(X=30)+P(X=31)+P(X=32)P(X=30) + P(X=31) + P(X=32).

The Probability Mass Function (PMF) is P(X=x)=nCxpxqnxP(X=x) = {^nC_x} p^x q^{n-x}. With n=32n=32, p=1/2p=1/2, q=1/2q=1/2, the term pxqnxp^x q^{n-x} becomes (1/2)x(1/2)32x=(1/2)32(1/2)^x (1/2)^{32-x} = (1/2)^{32}. So, P(X=x)=32Cx(12)32P(X=x) = {^{32}C_x} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}.

Let's calculate each term:

  • For X=30X=30: P(X=30)=32C30(12)32P(X=30) = {^{32}C_{30}} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} Using nCx=nCnx{^nC_x} = {^nC_{n-x}}, we have 32C30=32C3230=32C2{^{32}C_{30}} = {^{32}C_{32-30}} = {^{32}C_2}. 32C2=32×312×1=16×31=496{^{32}C_2} = \frac{32 \times 31}{2 \times 1} = 16 \times 31 = 496 So, P(X=30)=496(12)32P(X=30) = 496 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}.

  • For X=31X=31: P(X=31)=32C31(12)32P(X=31) = {^{32}C_{31}} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} Using nCx=nCnx{^nC_x} = {^nC_{n-x}}, we have 32C31=32C3231=32C1{^{32}C_{31}} = {^{32}C_{32-31}} = {^{32}C_1}. 32C1=32{^{32}C_1} = 32 So, P(X=31)=32(12)32P(X=31) = 32 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}.

  • For X=32X=32: P(X=32)=32C32(12)32P(X=32) = {^{32}C_{32}} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} 32C32=1{^{32}C_{32}} = 1 So, P(X=32)=1(12)32P(X=32) = 1 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}.

Now, sum these probabilities: P(X>29)=496(12)32+32(12)32+1(12)32P(X > 29) = 496 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} + 32 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} + 1 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} Factor out the common term (12)32\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}: P(X>29)=(496+32+1)(12)32P(X > 29) = (496 + 32 + 1) \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} P(X>29)=529(12)32P(X > 29) = 529 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32}

Step 5: Determine the value of kk. The problem states that P(X>n3)=k2nP(X > n-3) = \frac{k}{2^n}. Substituting n=32n=32, we have P(X>29)=k232P(X > 29) = \frac{k}{2^{32}}. Comparing this with our calculated probability: k232=529(12)32=529232\frac{k}{2^{32}} = 529 \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{32} = \frac{529}{2^{32}} Therefore, k=529k = 529.

3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Parameter Validity: Always verify that the derived parameters n,p,qn, p, q are valid for a binomial distribution (nn is a positive integer, 0p10 \le p \le 1, 0q10 \le q \le 1). This step is crucial for eliminating extraneous solutions from quadratic equations.
  • Inequality Interpretation: For discrete random variables, P(X>a)P(X > a) means P(X=a+1)+P(X=a+2)+P(X=a+1) + P(X=a+2) + \dots. Ensure you correctly identify the range of values for summation.
  • Combinations and PMF Simplification: When p=q=1/2p=q=1/2, the term pxqnxp^x q^{n-x} simplifies to (1/2)n(1/2)^n, which can significantly streamline calculations. Also, use the property nCx=nCnx{^nC_x} = {^nC_{n-x}} to simplify calculations for large xx.

4. Summary

This problem tests the fundamental understanding of binomial distribution properties. It involved setting up and solving a system of equations based on the given sum and product of mean and variance to determine the distribution parameters (n=32,p=1/2,q=1/2n=32, p=1/2, q=1/2). A critical step was validating the parameters to discard invalid solutions. Finally, the probability P(X>n3)P(X > n-3) was calculated by summing the probabilities of specific outcomes using the PMF, leading to the value of kk.

The final answer is 529\boxed{\text{529}}, which corresponds to option (B).

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