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JEE Main 2020
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Medium

Question

Three numbers are chosen at random without replacement from {1,2,3,..8}.\left\{ {1,2,3,..8} \right\}. The probability that their minimum is 3,3, given that their maximum is 6,6, is :

Options

Solution

  1. Key Concepts and Formulas

    • Conditional Probability: The probability of an event AA occurring given that another event BB has already occurred is denoted as P(AB)P(A|B). The fundamental formula is P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}.
    • Reduced Sample Space Method: For problems involving counting outcomes (like combinations), it is often more efficient to calculate conditional probability using the number of outcomes: P(AB)=Number of outcomes where A and B both occurNumber of outcomes where B occurs=N(AB)N(B)P(A|B) = \frac{\text{Number of outcomes where } A \text{ and } B \text{ both occur}}{\text{Number of outcomes where } B \text{ occurs}} = \frac{N(A \cap B)}{N(B)} This method avoids calculating the total number of possible outcomes in the universal set, as it cancels out.
    • Combinations: The number of ways to choose kk distinct items from a set of nn distinct items without regard to the order is given by (nk)=n!k!(nk)!\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}. This is used for "without replacement" selection.
  2. Step-by-Step Solution

    Step 1: Understand the Problem and Define Events We are choosing three distinct numbers at random without replacement from the set S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}. Let's define the events:

    • Event AA: The minimum of the three chosen numbers is 33.
    • Event BB: The maximum of the three chosen numbers is 66. Our goal is to calculate P(AB)P(A|B), which is the probability that the minimum is 33, given that the maximum is 66.

    Step 2: Determine the Size of the Reduced Sample Space (N(B)N(B)) We first need to find the number of ways to choose 33 numbers such that their maximum is 66. This forms our reduced sample space for event BB.

    • Condition for "maximum is 6":
      1. The number 66 must be one of the three chosen numbers.
      2. The other two numbers must be chosen from the set of numbers strictly smaller than 66. This ensures that 66 is indeed the largest among the three.
    • Identifying the pool for the other numbers: The numbers in SS that are strictly smaller than 66 are {1,2,3,4,5}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5\}. There are 55 such numbers.
    • Calculating N(B)N(B): We choose 66 in (11)\binom{1}{1} way. We choose 22 additional numbers from the 55 available numbers in {1,2,3,4,5}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5\} in (52)\binom{5}{2} ways. N(B)=(11)×(52)=1×5×42×1=1×10=10N(B) = \binom{1}{1} \times \binom{5}{2} = 1 \times \frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = 1 \times 10 = 10 The 1010 sets of numbers where the maximum is 66 are: {1,2,6},{1,3,6},{1,4,6},{1,5,6},{2,3,6},{2,4,6},{2,5,6},{3,4,6},{3,5,6},{4,5,6}\{1,2,6\}, \{1,3,6\}, \{1,4,6\}, \{1,5,6\}, \{2,3,6\}, \{2,4,6\}, \{2,5,6\}, \{3,4,6\}, \{3,5,6\}, \{4,5,6\}.

    Step 3: Determine the Number of Outcomes for the Intersection (N(AB)N(A \cap B)) Next, we need to find the number of ways to choose 33 numbers such that their minimum is 33 AND their maximum is 66. This is the intersection of events AA and BB.

    • Condition for "minimum is 3 AND maximum is 6":
      1. The number 33 must be one of the chosen numbers (as it's the minimum).
      2. The number 66 must be one of the chosen numbers (as it's the maximum).
      3. The third number must be strictly greater than 33 (to maintain 33 as the minimum) AND strictly less than 66 (to maintain 66 as the maximum).
    • Identifying the pool for the third number: The numbers in SS that are strictly between 33 and 66 are {4,5}\{4, 5\}. There are 22 such numbers.
    • Calculating N(AB)N(A \cap B): We choose 33 in (11)\binom{1}{1} way. We choose 66 in (11)\binom{1}{1} way. We choose 11 additional number from the 22 available numbers in {4,5}\{4, 5\} in (21)\binom{2}{1} ways. N(AB)=(11)×(11)×(21)=1×1×2=2N(A \cap B) = \binom{1}{1} \times \binom{1}{1} \times \binom{2}{1} = 1 \times 1 \times 2 = 2 The 22 sets of numbers where the minimum is 33 and the maximum is 66 are: {3,4,6}\{3, 4, 6\} and {3,5,6}\{3, 5, 6\}.

    Step 4: Calculate the Conditional Probability Using the reduced sample space formula, we can now find P(AB)P(A|B): P(AB)=N(AB)N(B)P(A|B) = \frac{N(A \cap B)}{N(B)} Substitute the values calculated in Step 2 and Step 3: P(AB)=210=15P(A|B) = \frac{2}{10} = \frac{1}{5}

  3. Common Mistakes & Tips

    • Misinterpreting "Minimum" or "Maximum": Always remember that if kk is the minimum, kk must be included, and all other numbers must be strictly greater than kk. Similarly for the maximum.
    • Incorrect Range for Intermediate Numbers: When both minimum (mm) and maximum (MM) are specified, the remaining numbers must be chosen from the set of integers strictly between mm and MM. E.g., for min 3 and max 6, the intermediate numbers are from {4,5}\{4,5\}.
    • Forgetting "Without Replacement": This implies that numbers must be distinct, which is correctly handled by using combinations ((nk)\binom{n}{k}).
    • Not Using Reduced Sample Space: While the full conditional probability formula (P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}) works, using counts directly (P(AB)=N(AB)N(B)P(A|B) = \frac{N(A \cap B)}{N(B)}) is generally simpler for counting problems as the total sample space size cancels out.
  4. Summary To find the probability that the minimum of three chosen numbers is 33, given that their maximum is 66, we utilized the conditional probability concept with a reduced sample space. We first identified all possible sets of three numbers whose maximum is 66, finding 1010 such sets. Then, from these 1010 sets, we identified the subset where the minimum is also 33, finding 22 such sets. The conditional probability is the ratio of these counts, which is 210\frac{2}{10}, simplifying to 15\frac{1}{5}.

The final answer is \boxed{\text{1 \over 5}}, which corresponds to option (B).

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