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Statistics & Probability
Probability
Hard

Question

Let N denote the sum of the numbers obtained when two dice are rolled. If the probability that 2N<N!{2^N} < N! is mn{m \over n}, where m and n are coprime, then 4m3n4m-3n is equal to :

Options

Solution

1. Key Concepts and Formulas

  • Probability of an Event: For an event EE within a sample space SS of equally likely outcomes, its probability P(E)P(E) is given by: P(E)=Number of outcomes favorable to ETotal number of possible outcomes in SP(E) = \frac{\text{Number of outcomes favorable to } E}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes in } S}
  • Sample Space for Rolling Two Dice: When two standard six-sided dice are rolled, the total number of possible outcomes is 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36. Each outcome is an ordered pair (Die 1 result, Die 2 result).
  • Complementary Probability: If EE is an event, its complement EE' is the event that EE does not occur. The probability of EE can be found using the formula: P(E)=1P(E)P(E) = 1 - P(E') This is especially useful when the number of outcomes for EE' is significantly smaller or easier to determine than for EE.

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Determine the Sample Space for N (Sum of Two Dice) and its Frequencies. The variable NN is the sum of the numbers obtained when two dice are rolled. We need to list all possible values of NN and the number of ways each sum can occur. This forms the basis for calculating probabilities.

The total number of possible outcomes when rolling two dice is 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36.

Sum (N)Possible Combinations (Die 1, Die 2)Number of Ways (Frequency)
2(1,1)1
3(1,2), (2,1)2
4(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)3
5(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)4
6(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)5
7(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)6
8(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)5
9(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)4
10(4,6), (5,5), (6,4)3
11(5,6), (6,5)2
12(6,6)1
Total36

Step 2: Analyze the Inequality 2N<N!2^N < N!. We need to find for which values of NN (from 2 to 12) the inequality 2N<N!2^N < N! holds true.

  • For N=2N=2:

    • 2N=22=42^N = 2^2 = 4
    • N!=2!=2×1=2N! = 2! = 2 \times 1 = 2
    • Is 4<24 < 2? No. So, N=2N=2 does not satisfy the inequality. (2NN!2^N \ge N! holds)
  • For N=3N=3:

    • 2N=23=82^N = 2^3 = 8
    • N!=3!=3×2×1=6N! = 3! = 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 6
    • Is 8<68 < 6? No. So, N=3N=3 does not satisfy the inequality. (2NN!2^N \ge N! holds)
  • For N=4N=4:

    • 2N=24=162^N = 2^4 = 16
    • N!=4!=4×3×2×1=24N! = 4! = 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 24
    • Is 16<2416 < 24? Yes. So, N=4N=4 satisfies the inequality.
  • For N=5N=5:

    • 2N=25=322^N = 2^5 = 32
    • N!=5!=5×4×3×2×1=120N! = 5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 120
    • Is 32<12032 < 120? Yes. So, N=5N=5 satisfies the inequality.

Reasoning for N4N \ge 4: Once N!N! becomes greater than 2N2^N (which happens at N=4N=4), it will continue to be greater for all subsequent integer values of NN. This is because when NN increases to N+1N+1:

  • 2N+1=2N×22^{N+1} = 2^N \times 2
  • (N+1)!=N!×(N+1)(N+1)! = N! \times (N+1) Since for N4N \ge 4, (N+1)>2(N+1) > 2, the factorial term (N+1)!(N+1)! grows much faster than the exponential term 2N+12^{N+1}. Therefore, the inequality 2N<N!2^N < N! holds for all values of NN such that N4N \ge 4. The values of NN that satisfy 2N<N!2^N < N! are {4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}\{4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12\}. The values of NN that satisfy 2NN!2^N \ge N! are {2,3}\{2, 3\}.

Step 3: Calculate the Required Probability using Complementary Events. Let EE be the event that 2N<N!2^N < N!. The values of NN for which EE occurs are {4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}\{4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12\}. There are 9 such values. The complementary event EE' is 2NN!2^N \ge N!. The values of NN for which EE' occurs are {2,3}\{2, 3\}. There are only 2 such values, making it much simpler to calculate P(E)P(E').

  • Calculate the number of favorable outcomes for EE' (i.e., N=2N=2 or N=3N=3):

    • From Step 1, the frequency for N=2N=2 is 1.
    • From Step 1, the frequency for N=3N=3 is 2.
    • Since these are mutually exclusive, the total number of ways for EE' is 1+2=31 + 2 = 3.
  • Calculate the probability of the complementary event P(E)P(E'):

    • Total number of possible outcomes is 36.
    • P(E)=Number of ways for N=2 or N=3Total number of outcomes=336=112P(E') = \frac{\text{Number of ways for } N=2 \text{ or } N=3}{\text{Total number of outcomes}} = \frac{3}{36} = \frac{1}{12}
  • Calculate the probability of the event EE using complementary probability:

    • P(E)=1P(E)P(E) = 1 - P(E')
    • P(E)=1112=12112=1112P(E) = 1 - \frac{1}{12} = \frac{12 - 1}{12} = \frac{11}{12} So, the probability that 2N<N!2^N < N! is 1112\frac{11}{12}.

Step 4: Calculate 4m3n4m-3n. The problem states that the probability is mn\frac{m}{n}, where mm and nn are coprime. From Step 3, we found the probability to be 1112\frac{11}{12}. Thus, we have m=11m=11 and n=12n=12. Let's check if mm and nn are coprime: The greatest common divisor of 11 and 12 is 1, so they are indeed coprime.

Now, we substitute these values into the expression 4m3n4m-3n: 4m3n=4(11)3(12)4m - 3n = 4(11) - 3(12) 4m3n=44364m - 3n = 44 - 36 4m3n=84m - 3n = 8

3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Incomplete Sample Space: Ensure all 36 possible outcomes for two dice rolls are considered, and the frequencies for each sum NN are correctly tabulated. Remember that (1,2) and (2,1) are distinct outcomes.
  • Errors in Inequality Evaluation: Carefully calculate 2N2^N and N!N! for each NN. A common mistake is to miscalculate factorials or powers.
  • Missing the Trend: Failing to observe that N!N! grows significantly faster than 2N2^N for N4N \ge 4 could lead to unnecessary calculations for all NN from 6 to 12. Recognizing this pattern is a key time-saver.
  • Not Using Complementary Probability: Directly summing frequencies for N{4,,12}N \in \{4, \dots, 12\} is more prone to error and takes longer than calculating for N{2,3}N \in \{2, 3\} and using the complementary rule.
  • Simplifying Fractions: Always reduce the probability fraction to its simplest form to ensure mm and nn are coprime before the final calculation.

4. Summary

This problem required a systematic approach combining probability fundamentals with number theory. We first established the sample space for the sum of two dice rolls and their frequencies. Next, we analyzed the inequality 2N<N!2^N < N! for various values of NN, identifying the specific values for which it holds. By recognizing the rapid growth of the factorial function, we efficiently determined the set of NN values satisfying the inequality. Finally, employing the principle of complementary probability significantly simplified the calculation of the required probability, leading to P(E)=1112P(E) = \frac{11}{12}. With m=11m=11 and n=12n=12, the final expression 4m3n4m-3n was computed as 88.

5. Final Answer

The final answer is 8\boxed{8}, which corresponds to option (C).

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