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Statistics & Probability
Probability
Easy

Question

Let S = {E 1 , E 2 , ........., E 8 } be a sample space of a random experiment such that P(En)=n36P({E_n}) = {n \over {36}} for every n = 1, 2, ........, 8. Then the number of elements in the set {AS:P(A)45}\left\{ {A \subseteq S:P(A) \ge {4 \over 5}} \right\} is ___________.

Answer: 36

Solution

This problem involves calculating the number of subsets of a given sample space that satisfy a specific probability condition. The core idea is to translate the probability condition into a condition on the sum of indices of the elementary events, and then systematically count the subsets.

1. Key Concepts and Formulas

  • Probability of an Event in a Discrete Sample Space: For an event ASA \subseteq S, where S={E1,E2,,EN}S = \{E_1, E_2, \ldots, E_N\} is a discrete sample space, P(A)=EnAP(En)P(A) = \sum_{E_n \in A} P(E_n).
  • Sum of Probabilities: The sum of probabilities of all elementary events in a sample space must equal 1: n=1NP(En)=1\sum_{n=1}^N P(E_n) = 1.
  • Complement of an Event: For any event AA, its complement Ac=SAA^c = S \setminus A. The sum of indices of elements in AA and AcA^c satisfies SA+SAc=SSS_A + S_{A^c} = S_S, where SSS_S is the sum of indices of all elements in SS.

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Verify the Validity of the Probability Distribution First, we must ensure that the given probabilities for the elementary events sum to 1. The sample space is S={E1,E2,,E8}S = \{E_1, E_2, \ldots, E_8\}, and P(En)=n36P(E_n) = \frac{n}{36} for n=1,2,,8n = 1, 2, \ldots, 8. Let's sum these probabilities: n=18P(En)=P(E1)+P(E2)++P(E8)\sum_{n=1}^8 P(E_n) = P(E_1) + P(E_2) + \ldots + P(E_8) =136+236++836= \frac{1}{36} + \frac{2}{36} + \ldots + \frac{8}{36} =1+2+3+4+5+6+7+836= \frac{1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8}{36} The sum of the first kk natural numbers is given by the formula k(k+1)2\frac{k(k+1)}{2}. For k=8k=8, the sum is 8(8+1)2=8×92=36\frac{8(8+1)}{2} = \frac{8 \times 9}{2} = 36. =3636=1= \frac{36}{36} = 1 Since the sum is 1, the given probability distribution is valid.

Step 2: Translate the Probability Condition into a Sum of Indices Condition We are looking for subsets ASA \subseteq S such that P(A)45P(A) \ge \frac{4}{5}. Let SAS_A be the sum of the indices of the elementary events in AA. That is, SA=EnAnS_A = \sum_{E_n \in A} n. Using the definition of P(A)P(A): P(A)=EnAP(En)=EnAn36=136EnAn=SA36P(A) = \sum_{E_n \in A} P(E_n) = \sum_{E_n \in A} \frac{n}{36} = \frac{1}{36} \sum_{E_n \in A} n = \frac{S_A}{36} Now, we can rewrite the given condition in terms of SAS_A: SA3645\frac{S_A}{36} \ge \frac{4}{5} To find the minimum integer value for SAS_A, we multiply both sides by 36: SA4×365S_A \ge \frac{4 \times 36}{5} SA1445S_A \ge \frac{144}{5} SA28.8S_A \ge 28.8 Since SAS_A is a sum of integers (the indices nn), it must be an integer. Therefore, the condition SA28.8S_A \ge 28.8 implies SA29S_A \ge 29. Our task is to find the number of subsets ASA \subseteq S such that the sum of the indices of their elements is greater than or equal to 29.

Step 3: Utilize the Complement Event Strategy Directly counting subsets AA with a large sum of indices (SA29S_A \ge 29) can be complex. It's often easier to count the complementary event. Let Ac=SAA^c = S \setminus A be the complement of AA. The sum of all indices in SS is SS=n=18n=36S_S = \sum_{n=1}^8 n = 36. For any subset AA, SA+SAc=SS=36S_A + S_{A^c} = S_S = 36. We can rewrite the condition SA29S_A \ge 29 in terms of SAcS_{A^c}: 36SAc2936 - S_{A^c} \ge 29 3629SAc36 - 29 \ge S_{A^c} SAc7S_{A^c} \le 7 So, we need to find the number of subsets X=AcSX = A^c \subseteq S such that the sum of the indices of its elements is less than or equal to 7. Each such subset XX uniquely corresponds to a subset AA that satisfies the original condition.

Step 4: Systematically Enumerate Subsets XX with SX7S_X \le 7 The elements available for forming XX are {E1,E2,,E8}\{E_1, E_2, \ldots, E_8\}, with indices {1,2,,8}\{1, 2, \ldots, 8\}. We list subsets XX based on the sum of their indices:

  • Sum = 0:
    • The empty set: \emptyset (1 subset)
  • Sum = 1:
    • {E1}\{E_1\} (1 subset)
  • Sum = 2:
    • {E2}\{E_2\} (1 subset)
  • Sum = 3:
    • {E3}\{E_3\}
    • {E1,E2}\{E_1, E_2\} (1+2=31+2=3) (2 subsets)
  • Sum = 4:
    • {E4}\{E_4\}
    • {E1,E3}\{E_1, E_3\} (1+3=41+3=4) (2 subsets)
  • Sum = 5:
    • {E5}\{E_5\}
    • {E1,E4}\{E_1, E_4\} (1+4=51+4=5)
    • {E2,E3}\{E_2, E_3\} (2+3=52+3=5) (3 subsets)
  • Sum = 6:
    • {E6}\{E_6\}
    • {E1,E5}\{E_1, E_5\} (1+5=61+5=6)
    • {E2,E4}\{E_2, E_4\} (2+4=62+4=6)
    • {E1,E2,E3}\{E_1, E_2, E_3\} (1+2+3=61+2+3=6) (4 subsets)
  • Sum = 7:
    • {E7}\{E_7\}
    • {E1,E6}\{E_1, E_6\} (1+6=71+6=7)
    • {E2,E5}\{E_2, E_5\} (2+5=72+5=7)
    • {E3,E4}\{E_3, E_4\} (3+4=73+4=7)
    • {E1,E2,E4}\{E_1, E_2, E_4\} (1+2+4=71+2+4=7) (5 subsets)

Any subset with 4 or more elements will have a sum of indices greater than 7 (e.g., the smallest sum for 4 elements is 1+2+3+4=101+2+3+4=10). Thus, we have enumerated all possible subsets XX with SX7S_X \le 7.

Step 5: Calculate the Total Count Adding up the number of subsets for each possible sum: Total number of subsets X=AcX = A^c such that SX7S_X \le 7 is: 1+1+1+2+2+3+4+5=191 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 19.

Each of these 19 subsets XX corresponds to a unique subset A=SXA = S \setminus X that satisfies the original condition P(A)45P(A) \ge \frac{4}{5}. Therefore, the number of elements in the set {AS:P(A)45}\left\{ {A \subseteq S:P(A) \ge {4 \over 5}} \right\} is 19.

3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Forgetting to verify P(En)=1\sum P(E_n) = 1: Always perform this check to ensure the problem is well-posed.
  • Rounding errors: When converting a fractional probability condition to an integer sum condition (e.g., SA28.8    SA29S_A \ge 28.8 \implies S_A \ge 29), ensure correct rounding up for 'greater than or equal to' conditions.
  • Incomplete enumeration: When listing subsets for a specific sum, use a systematic method (e.g., by number of elements, or by smallest index) to avoid missing combinations.
  • Not using the complement: For conditions involving "large" sums/probabilities, counting the complement (which involves "small" sums/probabilities) is often much simpler and less prone to errors.

4. Summary

The problem required us to count subsets whose probability met a certain threshold. We first verified the probability distribution of the sample space. Then, we converted the probability condition P(A)45P(A) \ge \frac{4}{5} into an equivalent condition on the sum of indices of the elementary events in the subset, SA29S_A \ge 29. To simplify counting, we used the complementary event approach, which meant counting subsets AcA^c with SAc7S_{A^c} \le 7. A careful, systematic enumeration of these complementary subsets yielded 19.

The final answer is 19\boxed{\text{19}}.

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