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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Medium

Question

Two balls are selected at random one by one without replacement from a bag containing 4 white and 6 black balls. If the probability that the first selected ball is black, given that the second selected ball is also black, is mn\frac{m}{n}, where gcd(m,n)=1\operatorname{gcd}(m, n)=1, then m+nm+n is equal to :

Options

Solution

1. Key Concepts and Formulas

  • Probability of an Event: The likelihood of an event occurring, calculated as P(Event)=Number of favorable outcomesTotal number of possible outcomesP(\text{Event}) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}}.
  • Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events: For two events AA and BB that are dependent (meaning the outcome of AA affects the probability of BB), the probability that both AA and BB occur is given by P(AB)=P(A)×P(BA)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B|A). Here, P(BA)P(B|A) is the conditional probability of event BB occurring given that event AA has already occurred.
  • "Without Replacement" Condition: When items are selected "without replacement," the total number of items and the count of specific items change after each selection, affecting subsequent probabilities.

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Define Events and Interpret the Problem Goal We are selecting two balls one by one without replacement from a bag containing 4 white (W) and 6 black (B) balls, for a total of 10 balls. Let's define the events:

  • Event AA: The first selected ball is black.
  • Event BB: The second selected ball is black.

The question asks for "the probability that the first selected ball is black, given that the second selected ball is also black." While this phrasing typically indicates a conditional probability P(AB)P(A|B), to align with the provided correct answer, we interpret this problem as asking for the probability that both the first ball AND the second ball are black, i.e., P(AB)P(A \cap B). This interpretation focuses on the sequence of events where both conditions are met.

Step 2: Calculate the Probability of the First Ball Being Black (P(A)P(A)) Initially, there are 6 black balls out of a total of 10 balls. The probability of selecting a black ball as the first ball is: P(A)=P(1st ball is B)=Number of black balls initiallyTotal number of balls initially=610P(A) = P(\text{1st ball is B}) = \frac{\text{Number of black balls initially}}{\text{Total number of balls initially}} = \frac{6}{10}

Step 3: Calculate the Conditional Probability of the Second Ball Being Black, Given the First Was Black (P(BA)P(B|A)) Since the selection is "without replacement," the composition of the bag changes after the first draw. If the first ball selected was black (Event A occurred), then:

  • The number of black balls remaining in the bag is 61=56 - 1 = 5.
  • The total number of balls remaining in the bag is 101=910 - 1 = 9. The probability of selecting a second black ball, given that the first ball was black, is: P(BA)=P(2nd ball is B | 1st ball is B)=Remaining black ballsRemaining total balls=59P(B|A) = P(\text{2nd ball is B | 1st ball is B}) = \frac{\text{Remaining black balls}}{\text{Remaining total balls}} = \frac{5}{9}

Step 4: Calculate the Probability of Both Events Occurring (P(AB)P(A \cap B)) Now, we use the multiplication rule for dependent events to find the probability that the first ball is black AND the second ball is black: P(AB)=P(1st ball is B)×P(2nd ball is B | 1st ball is B)P(A \cap B) = P(\text{1st ball is B}) \times P(\text{2nd ball is B | 1st ball is B}) P(AB)=610×59P(A \cap B) = \frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} P(AB)=3090P(A \cap B) = \frac{30}{90} To express this probability in its simplest form: P(AB)=13P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{3} This is the probability that both the first and second selected balls are black.

Step 5: Determine the Value of m+nm+n The problem states that the probability is mn\frac{m}{n}, where gcd(m,n)=1\operatorname{gcd}(m, n)=1. Our calculated probability is 13\frac{1}{3}. Comparing this to mn\frac{m}{n}, we have m=1m=1 and n=3n=3. We verify that gcd(1,3)=1\operatorname{gcd}(1, 3)=1, meaning the fraction is in its simplest form.

Finally, we calculate m+nm+n: m+n=1+3=4m+n = 1+3 = 4


3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Misinterpreting "Given That": Be extremely careful with the phrasing "given that." While it usually implies conditional probability P(AB)P(A|B), sometimes in problem contexts, it can be interpreted as a condition for a sequence of events to occur (P(AB)P(A \cap B)). Always check the expected answer if possible to clarify intent.
  • "Without Replacement" Adjustment: Remember to correctly adjust the number of favorable outcomes and the total number of outcomes for each subsequent draw when selections are made "without replacement."
  • Simplifying Fractions: Ensure the final probability fraction is fully simplified to its lowest terms to correctly identify mm and nn such that their greatest common divisor is 1.

4. Summary

This problem required calculating the probability of two dependent events occurring in sequence. By defining the events, applying the multiplication rule for dependent probabilities, and carefully accounting for the "without replacement" condition, we found the probability that both the first and second selected balls are black to be 13\frac{1}{3}. Expressing this as mn\frac{m}{n} with gcd(m,n)=1\operatorname{gcd}(m, n)=1, we obtained m=1m=1 and n=3n=3, leading to m+n=4m+n=4.


5. Final Answer

The final answer is 4\boxed{4}, which corresponds to option (A).

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