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JEE Main 2023
Statistics & Probability
Probability
Hard

Question

Two dice A and B are rolled. Let the numbers obtained on A and B be α\alpha and β\beta respectively. If the variance of αβ\alpha-\beta is pq\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are co-prime, then the sum of the positive divisors of pp is equal to :

Options

Solution

Here is a clear, educational, and well-structured solution to the problem.


1. Key Concepts and Formulas

To solve this problem, we will utilize fundamental concepts from probability and statistics:

  • Expected Value (E[X]E[X] or Mean): For a discrete random variable XX with possible values xix_i and probabilities P(X=xi)P(X=x_i), its expected value is given by: E[X]=ixiP(X=xi)E[X] = \sum_{i} x_i P(X=x_i)
  • Variance (Var[X]Var[X]): This measures the spread of the values of a random variable around its expected value. It is defined by the formula: Var[X]=E[X2](E[X])2Var[X] = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2 where E[X2]=ixi2P(X=xi)E[X^2] = \sum_{i} x_i^2 P(X=x_i).
  • Sum of Positive Divisors (σ(n)\sigma(n)): For a positive integer nn with prime factorization n=p1e1p2e2pkekn = p_1^{e_1} p_2^{e_2} \cdots p_k^{e_k}, the sum of its positive divisors is: σ(n)=(1+p1++p1e1)(1+p2++p2e2)(1+pk++pkek)\sigma(n) = (1+p_1+\cdots+p_1^{e_1})(1+p_2+\cdots+p_2^{e_2})\cdots(1+p_k+\cdots+p_k^{e_k}) This can also be expressed as σ(n)=(p1e1+11p11)(p2e2+11p21)(pkek+11pk1)\sigma(n) = \left(\frac{p_1^{e_1+1}-1}{p_1-1}\right) \left(\frac{p_2^{e_2+1}-1}{p_2-1}\right) \cdots \left(\frac{p_k^{e_k+1}-1}{p_k-1}\right).

2. Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Define the Random Variable and its Sample Space.

  • What we are doing: We identify the random variables involved and determine the range of values for our target random variable, X=αβX = \alpha - \beta.
  • Why we are doing this: Clearly defining the random variable and its possible outcomes is the first crucial step to constructing its probability distribution.
  • Calculations: Let α\alpha be the outcome on die A and β\beta be the outcome on die B. The possible values for α\alpha and β\beta are {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}. Since two dice are rolled, there are 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 equally likely outcomes (α,β)(\alpha, \beta). Our random variable is X=αβX = \alpha - \beta. The minimum value of XX occurs when α=1\alpha=1 and β=6\beta=6, so Xmin=16=5X_{min} = 1 - 6 = -5. The maximum value of XX occurs when α=6\alpha=6 and β=1\beta=1, so Xmax=61=5X_{max} = 6 - 1 = 5. Thus, the possible values for XX are {5,4,3,2,1,0,1,2,3,4,5}\{-5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5\}.

Step 2: Construct the Probability Distribution of X=αβX = \alpha - \beta.

  • What we are doing: We systematically determine the number of ways each value of XX can occur and then calculate its probability.
  • Why we are doing this: The expected value and variance calculations depend directly on this probability distribution.
  • Calculations: We count the number of pairs (α,β)(\alpha, \beta) such that αβ=xi\alpha - \beta = x_i for each xi{5,,5}x_i \in \{-5, \dots, 5\}. Each pair has a probability of 136\frac{1}{36}.
X=xiX = x_iPairs (α,β)(\alpha, \beta)Number of Cases (NiN_i)P(X=xi)=Ni/36P(X=x_i) = N_i/36
55(6,1)(6,1)11/361/36
44(5,1),(6,2)(5,1), (6,2)22/362/36
33(4,1),(5,2),(6,3)(4,1), (5,2), (6,3)33/363/36
22(3,1),(4,2),(5,3),(6,4)(3,1), (4,2), (5,3), (6,4)44/364/36
11(2,1),(3,2),(4,3),(5,4),(6,5)(2,1), (3,2), (4,3), (5,4), (6,5)55/365/36
00(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)66/366/36
1-1(1,2),(2,3),(3,4),(4,5),(5,6)(1,2), (2,3), (3,4), (4,5), (5,6)55/365/36
2-2(1,3),(2,4),(3,5),(4,6)(1,3), (2,4), (3,5), (4,6)44/364/36
3-3(1,4),(2,5),(3,6)(1,4), (2,5), (3,6)33/363/36
4-4(1,5),(2,6)(1,5), (2,6)22/362/36
5-5(1,6)(1,6)11/361/36

Notice the symmetry in the probabilities: P(X=k)=P(X=k)P(X=k) = P(X=-k) for k0k \neq 0. This property will simplify our calculations.

Step 3: Calculate the Expected Value E[X]E[X].

  • What we are doing: We apply the formula E[X]=xiP(X=xi)E[X] = \sum x_i P(X=x_i) using the distribution from Step 2.
  • Why we are doing this: E[X]E[X] is a necessary component for calculating the variance.
  • Calculations: E[X]=xi=55xiP(X=xi)E[X] = \sum_{x_i=-5}^{5} x_i P(X=x_i) E[X]=136[(51)+(42)+(33)+(24)+(15)+(06)+(15)+(24)+(33)+(42)+(51)]E[X] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ (-5 \cdot 1) + (-4 \cdot 2) + (-3 \cdot 3) + (-2 \cdot 4) + (-1 \cdot 5) + (0 \cdot 6) + (1 \cdot 5) + (2 \cdot 4) + (3 \cdot 3) + (4 \cdot 2) + (5 \cdot 1) \right] E[X]=136[58985+0+5+8+9+8+5]E[X] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ -5 - 8 - 9 - 8 - 5 + 0 + 5 + 8 + 9 + 8 + 5 \right] Due to the symmetry of the distribution (P(X=k)=P(X=k)P(X=k) = P(X=-k)), each positive term cancels out its corresponding negative term: E[X]=136[(5+5)+(8+8)+(9+9)+(8+8)+(5+5)+0]=136[0]=0E[X] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ (-5+5) + (-8+8) + (-9+9) + (-8+8) + (-5+5) + 0 \right] = \frac{1}{36} [0] = 0 So, E[X]=0E[X] = 0.

Step 4: Calculate the Expected Value E[X2]E[X^2].

  • What we are doing: We apply the formula E[X2]=xi2P(X=xi)E[X^2] = \sum x_i^2 P(X=x_i).
  • Why we are doing this: E[X2]E[X^2] is the other necessary component for calculating the variance.
  • Calculations: E[X2]=xi=55xi2P(X=xi)E[X^2] = \sum_{x_i=-5}^{5} x_i^2 P(X=x_i) Since xi2=(xi)2x_i^2 = (-x_i)^2, the terms for kk and k-k will be identical. E[X2]=136[((5)21)+((4)22)+((3)23)+((2)24)+((1)25)+(026)E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ ((-5)^2 \cdot 1) + ((-4)^2 \cdot 2) + ((-3)^2 \cdot 3) + ((-2)^2 \cdot 4) + ((-1)^2 \cdot 5) + (0^2 \cdot 6) \right. +(125)+(224)+(323)+(422)+(521)]\left. \qquad \qquad + (1^2 \cdot 5) + (2^2 \cdot 4) + (3^2 \cdot 3) + (4^2 \cdot 2) + (5^2 \cdot 1) \right] E[X2]=136[(251)+(162)+(93)+(44)+(15)+(0)E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ (25 \cdot 1) + (16 \cdot 2) + (9 \cdot 3) + (4 \cdot 4) + (1 \cdot 5) + (0) \right. +(15)+(44)+(93)+(162)+(251)]\left. \qquad \qquad + (1 \cdot 5) + (4 \cdot 4) + (9 \cdot 3) + (16 \cdot 2) + (25 \cdot 1) \right] E[X2]=136[25+32+27+16+5+0+5+16+27+32+25]E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ 25 + 32 + 27 + 16 + 5 + 0 + 5 + 16 + 27 + 32 + 25 \right] Grouping symmetric terms: E[X2]=136[2(25)+2(32)+2(27)+2(16)+2(5)+0]E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ 2(25) + 2(32) + 2(27) + 2(16) + 2(5) + 0 \right] E[X2]=136[50+64+54+32+10]E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} \left[ 50 + 64 + 54 + 32 + 10 \right] E[X2]=136[210]E[X^2] = \frac{1}{36} [210] Simplifying the fraction by dividing numerator and denominator by their greatest common divisor, 6: E[X2]=210÷636÷6=356E[X^2] = \frac{210 \div 6}{36 \div 6} = \frac{35}{6}

Step 5: Calculate the Variance Var[X]Var[X].

  • What we are doing: We use the formula Var[X]=E[X2](E[X])2Var[X] = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2 with the values calculated in previous steps.
  • Why we are doing this: This is the primary objective of the first part of the problem.
  • Calculations: Substitute E[X2]=356E[X^2] = \frac{35}{6} and E[X]=0E[X] = 0: Var[X]=356(0)2Var[X] = \frac{35}{6} - (0)^2 Var[X]=356Var[X] = \frac{35}{6} The problem states that the variance is pq\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are co-prime. Here, p=35p=35 and q=6q=6. To confirm they are co-prime: Prime factors of 3535 are {5,7}\{5, 7\}. Prime factors of 66 are {2,3}\{2, 3\}. They share no common prime factors, so 3535 and 66 are indeed co-prime.

Step 6: Find the Sum of Positive Divisors of pp.

  • What we are doing: We find the sum of positive divisors for p=35p=35.
  • Why we are doing this: This is the final requirement of the question.
  • Calculations: The value of pp is 3535. First, find the prime factorization of 3535: 35=517135 = 5^1 \cdot 7^1. Using the sum of divisors formula σ(n)=(1+p1++p1e1)(1+p2++p2e2)\sigma(n) = (1+p_1+\cdots+p_1^{e_1})(1+p_2+\cdots+p_2^{e_2}): σ(35)=(1+51)(1+71)\sigma(35) = (1+5^1)(1+7^1) σ(35)=(1+5)(1+7)\sigma(35) = (1+5)(1+7) σ(35)=(6)(8)\sigma(35) = (6)(8) σ(35)=48\sigma(35) = 48 Alternatively, listing the divisors of 35: {1,5,7,35}\{1, 5, 7, 35\}. Sum of divisors =1+5+7+35=48= 1 + 5 + 7 + 35 = 48.

3. Common Mistakes & Tips

  • Leverage Symmetry: Always check if the probability distribution is symmetric. If P(X=k)=P(X=k)P(X=k) = P(X=-k), then E[X]E[X] will be 00, significantly simplifying calculations.
  • Alternative Variance Calculation: For independent random variables α\alpha and β\beta, Var[αβ]=Var[α]+Var[β]Var[\alpha-\beta] = Var[\alpha] + Var[\beta]. For a single fair die roll, E[α]=3.5E[\alpha] = 3.5 and E[α2]=12+22+32+42+52+626=916E[\alpha^2] = \frac{1^2+2^2+3^2+4^2+5^2+6^2}{6} = \frac{91}{6}. So, Var[α]=916(3.5)2=916494=18214712=3512Var[\alpha] = \frac{91}{6} - (3.5)^2 = \frac{91}{6} - \frac{49}{4} = \frac{182-147}{12} = \frac{35}{12}. Since α\alpha and β\beta are independent and identically distributed, Var[αβ]=3512+3512=7012=356Var[\alpha-\beta] = \frac{35}{12} + \frac{35}{12} = \frac{70}{12} = \frac{35}{6}. This is a much faster method if you are familiar with these properties.
  • Co-prime Check: Ensure that after calculating the variance pq\frac{p}{q}, you simplify the fraction to its lowest terms so that pp and qq are truly co-prime before proceeding to the next step.
  • Arithmetic Errors: Be meticulous with additions and multiplications, especially when summing many terms for E[X2]E[X^2].

4. Summary

We began by defining the random variable X=αβX = \alpha - \beta and constructing its probability distribution by enumerating all possible outcomes of two dice rolls. We observed the symmetry of the distribution, which allowed us to quickly determine E[X]=0E[X]=0. We then calculated E[X2]E[X^2] by summing xi2P(X=xi)x_i^2 P(X=x_i) for all possible values. Using the variance formula, Var[X]=E[X2](E[X])2Var[X] = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2, we found the variance to be 356\frac{35}{6}. Identifying p=35p=35 and q=6q=6 as co-prime, the final step was to calculate the sum of the positive divisors of p=35p=35, which is 48.

The final answer is 48\boxed{\text{48}}, which corresponds to option (A).

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