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Understanding Users and Markets

Trend Analysis and Market Forecasting

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Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis and Market Forecasting

Types of Trends

  • Mega Trends: Long-term, society-wide changes (aging population, climate)
  • Industry Trends: Sector-specific shifts (SaaS adoption, remote work)
  • Consumer Trends: Changing preferences and behaviors
  • Technology Trends: Emerging technologies and capabilities

Trend Identification Sources

SourceExamples
Industry ReportsGartner Hype Cycle, McKinsey Reports
Tech NewsTechCrunch, The Verge, Wired
Academic ResearchMIT Technology Review, arXiv
Social ListeningTwitter trends, Reddit discussions
Patent FilingsUSPTO, Google Patents
VC InvestmentCrunchbase, CB Insights

Gartner Hype Cycle

plaintext

Market Sizing (TAM, SAM, SOM)

  • TAM: Total Addressable Market - everyone who could use product
  • SAM: Serviceable Addressable Market - segment you can reach
  • SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market - realistic capture

Forecasting Methods

  • Top-Down: Start with market size, estimate share
  • Bottom-Up: Build from unit economics
  • Historical: Extrapolate from past trends